Forecasting Students’ Enrolment in Tanzania Government Primary Schools from 2021 to 2035 Using ARIMA Model
Forecasting Students’ Enrolment in Tanzania
Abstract
This article focuses on forecasting students' enrolment in Tanzania government primary schools from 2021 to 2035. A school enrolment is one of the key determinants of the needed school infrastructure. In Tanzania the Fee Free Primary Education (FFPE) started in 2015 and has caused the enrolment in Tanzania government primary school to increase by 26.8% from 2015 to 2020 which resulted into shortage of school infrastructure. The study provides information on the primary school enrolment from 2021 to 2035 which helps in sensitizing the community about the need of their contributions to school infrastructure in their localities. The study used secondary data on total enrolments in Tanzania government primary schools collected yearly from President's Office, Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG) from 1961 to 2020. Basing on the theory of Box and Jenkins method, the results indicate that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best fit model to forecast Tanzania government primary schools enrolments because it has the lowest Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) of 1618.3417 and 1622.4626 respectively. Enrolment has increased from 10,693,349 to 11, 641, 341 from 2021 to 2035. This findings has implication in the sense that the model can be used to support planning process in Tanzania government primary schools.
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